Q1 2026 export data for the Romanian IT services sector is in, and the picture is more interesting than the headline growth number suggests. Romanian IT exports continued their multi-year expansion, but the composition of that growth tells a story about where the sector is actually heading.

Here’s what we’re seeing in the numbers, and what it means for the broader Romanian tech ecosystem.

The headline numbers

Romanian IT services exports for Q1 2026 came in at approximately EUR 2.4 billion, up roughly 8% year-on-year. This is healthy growth in absolute terms, but it’s notably slower than the 15-18% annual growth rates the sector posted from 2018-2022.

Several things to note about this slowdown:

The Romanian economy as a whole is growing slower than it did pre-2022, and IT services growth has tracked this broader pattern. The export growth is still well above GDP growth, which means IT continues to gain share of total economic activity.

The slowdown is more pronounced in lower-end service categories (basic application development, simple QA work, infrastructure operations) and less pronounced in higher-end categories (AI/ML services, advanced platform engineering, specialised consulting). This is a healthy shift but it’s a real change in the sector’s growth model.

Geographic mix has shifted meaningfully. The US share of Romanian IT exports has grown to approximately 28% (from 22% three years ago), while the Western European share has held steady. Eastern European customers have grown, particularly Poland, Czechia and the Baltics. The trend is broadly toward higher-margin geographies.

The nearshoring story

Romania has been a beneficiary of the post-2024 nearshoring shift, but the actual pattern is more nuanced than the marketing material suggests. What we’re seeing in practice:

Western European nearshoring is the strongest driver. German, Austrian, Dutch, Nordic and UK customers have continued to expand their Romanian engagement. The combination of geographic proximity, time zone alignment, EU regulatory environment, and meaningful cost differentials makes Romania attractive for these customers.

US nearshoring is more selective. Some US firms are increasing Romanian engagement specifically for European-facing work, but for general nearshoring US firms still primarily look at Latin America. Romanian providers winning US work tend to win it on specialist capability rather than nearshoring per se.

Defence-adjacent work is growing. The strategic environment in Eastern Europe has driven defence sector spending across the region, and Romanian IT services firms with appropriate clearances and capabilities have benefited. This is a relatively small but high-value segment.

AI capability is differentiated value. Romanian providers that have built genuine AI/ML capability are commanding meaningfully higher rates than those still primarily doing application development. The premium for AI capability is real and growing.

The talent picture

Romanian tech talent supply continues to be tight in 2026, despite the broader economic slowdown. The salary growth rates we’ve covered in previous pieces have moderated somewhat but remain above general wage growth.

A few specific dynamics:

Senior engineering talent is increasingly scarce. The Romanian tech sector grew rapidly from 2010-2022, which produced a wave of mid-career engineers. The most experienced of those (now 15+ years in) are in heavy demand and many have either moved into management, founded their own companies, or been recruited offshore.

AI talent specifically is in extreme demand. Romanian providers with strong AI/ML capability are finding it hard to scale that capability fast enough to meet demand. Salary premiums for AI engineers in Romania have grown 30-50% over the past 18 months.

Junior talent supply has weakened. The combination of bootcamp closures, university enrolment shifts, and the AI tools changing what junior work looks like has reduced the flow of new junior engineers into the sector. Several established firms we’ve talked to are concerned about their long-term talent pipeline.

The competitive landscape

Romania’s IT services position has held up against regional competition but the dynamics have shifted.

Poland remains the dominant competitor. Polish IT services exports are larger in absolute terms and growing at similar rates. Polish providers have strong positions in Western European markets that Romanian firms also target.

Ukraine’s recovery story is impressive but partial. The Ukrainian IT services sector has been remarkably resilient through the ongoing conflict. Customers who built relationships with Ukrainian providers have largely maintained those engagements. New customer acquisition has been harder for Ukrainian firms.

Bulgarian and Serbian providers are growing share. Both markets are smaller than Romania but growing faster from a smaller base. Bulgaria in particular has emerged as a credible Romanian alternative for some Western European customers.

India and Vietnam compete on cost. For pure cost-driven engagements, Indian providers continue to win. But the Romanian advantage on time zone, geographic proximity to European customers, and cultural fit has held up well.

The vendor consolidation question

We’ve seen meaningful vendor consolidation activity in the Romanian IT services sector through 2024-2026. Several mid-sized providers have been acquired by larger international groups (mostly Western European or US-headquartered). Some have merged with regional competitors.

The pattern reflects broader IT services market dynamics - scale matters more than it used to, and providers in the EUR 50-200m revenue range often face a choice between scaling significantly or being acquired by someone who has.

We expect this consolidation to continue through 2026-2027. The Romanian providers most likely to remain independent are either:

• Very small specialist firms with deep technical capability
• Larger providers (EUR 300m+ revenue) that have reached the scale to operate independently
• Founder-led firms whose owners aren’t ready to sell

The middle is uncomfortable.

What we’re watching for the rest of 2026

Several themes that will shape the Romanian IT services story for the remainder of the year:

The European AI regulation environment. The EU AI Act’s full effects are still being worked through. Romanian providers serving European customers need to be conversant with the regulatory implications. This could be a competitive advantage versus offshore providers less familiar with European regulation.

The defence sector trajectory. If European defence spending continues to expand, Romanian providers with appropriate capability and clearances should see continued opportunity.

Capital availability for Romanian tech firms. Local VC and PE capital remains limited compared to what’s available in Western markets. The flow of international capital into Romanian tech has been reasonable but not abundant. This affects scaling options for ambitious local firms.

The talent pipeline question. If junior talent supply continues to weaken, the sector’s growth ceiling becomes a real constraint. We expect to see more programs from established providers around graduate recruitment and bootcamp partnerships.

The broader take

The Romanian IT services sector in 2026 is a more mature and more selective version of itself than it was in 2020. Growth has slowed but quality has improved. Competition is sharper but the moat around the best providers has actually deepened. Talent is harder to find but the talent that’s there is genuinely strong.

This is a sector in good shape, even if the headline growth numbers no longer impress. The Romanian tech story isn’t going to suddenly become a hyper-growth story again, but it’s going to remain one of the most important IT services markets in the European region for years to come.

We’ll be back with the Q2 numbers in early August. Expect the trends we’ve described to continue in roughly the same direction.